As tax refund season begins, talk of a possible fourth stimulus-style payment in 2026 is once again gaining momentum. President Donald Trump has reignited the discussion by signaling that Americans of low to moderate income could receive sizable payments tied to tariff revenue—potentially before next year’s midterm elections.
Trump recently stated that billions collected from tariffs could be returned directly to the public in the form of what he described as “dividends.”
“We’ve taken in hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money,” Trump said. “We’re going to be issuing dividends later on… of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate and middle income.”
However, confusion quickly followed. During a recent Oval Office interview, Trump appeared momentarily unsure when asked about a previously stated promise to issue $2,000 payments to most Americans.
“I did do that? When did I do that?” he asked, before clarifying that he had initially confused the plan with a separate $1,776 bonus program for service members. Still, Trump maintained that $2,000 payments could arrive later in the year, funded by what he called “substantial” tariff revenue.
“The tariff money coming in is very significant,” Trump said. “I think we’ll be able to do the $2,000 toward the end of the year.”
Big Promises, Bigger Questions
The proposal has sparked debate over whether tariff revenue can realistically support such payments. Analysts estimate that issuing $2,000 per eligible American could cost as much as $600 billion, while tariff collections as of late September were closer to $90 billion.
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