For decades, Democrats relied on a simple formula to win the White House: lock down the massive population centers on the coasts—California, New York, Illinois—and then win a handful of swing states. Keep those pillars safe, and victory felt almost guaranteed. But that strategy is starting to crack.
Population Shifts Are Changing the Game
America is moving—literally. Internal migration is reshaping political power faster than strategists anticipated. States gaining the most people today are often Republican-leaning, while major Democratic strongholds are losing residents. That means fewer Electoral College votes where Democrats once counted on them and growing influence in states they previously ignored.
New York, California, and Illinois are bleeding residents. Each person leaving doesn’t just affect taxes and housing; it chips away at political clout. Meanwhile, Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Utah, Idaho, and the Carolinas are booming. People flock there for lower taxes, more jobs, affordable housing, and often better weather.
Why Democrats Can’t Count on Migration to Flip Red States
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