Adding further uncertainty, the administration’s tariff policies face a looming legal test. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of the tariffs, and an unfavorable decision could require the federal government to refund collected revenues—potentially eliminating the funding source altogether.
Trump has publicly warned that a negative ruling could have serious consequences, framing the tariffs as a national security measure critical to the U.S. economy.
Inflation Concerns and Alternative Paths
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also urged caution, noting potential inflation risks if large payments are distributed too quickly.
“We’re concerned about inflationary effects,” Bessent said, suggesting that Americans might benefit more by saving rather than immediately spending any windfall. Several Republican lawmakers have echoed those concerns, warning that direct payments could add pressure to already high prices.
Bessent later explained that the proposed “dividend” might not come as a traditional check at all. Instead, relief could arrive through tax changes already under discussion.
“These benefits could take many forms,” he said, pointing to proposals such as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income, as well as expanding deductions for auto loan interest.
He later added that Americans could see larger tax refunds as a result of these changes.
“I think we’re going to see $100 to $150 billion in refunds,” Bessent said, estimating $1,000 to $2,000 per household, along with reduced withholding that could boost take-home pay throughout the year.
What Happens Next?
For now, no formal stimulus legislation has been introduced, and the timing, structure, and funding of any payments remain uncertain. Whether Americans see direct checks, tax refunds, or paycheck increases will likely depend on court rulings, congressional negotiations, and economic conditions in the months ahead.
What is clear is that the idea of another round of financial relief is once again front and center—just as millions of Americans begin filing their taxes and watching closely for what comes next.