Big Shifts Are Coming to U.S. Grocery Prices — Could Your Wallet Feel It Next?
As 2026 rolls on, American shoppers are facing a mixed bag at the supermarket. After years of post-pandemic price spikes and global supply chain headaches, many had hoped for relief. Former President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign promised to slash everyday costs “starting on Day 1,” with groceries often spotlighted. But one year into his second term, the reality on the shelves is more complicated.
The latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) shows overall food prices are forecasted to rise 3.0% in 2026, covering both groceries bought for home and meals eaten out. While that’s lower than the double-digit surges of 2022, the picture isn’t uniform — some items are dropping, while others continue climbing sharply.
Grocery Winners and Losers
Good news:
Eggs have dropped dramatically — some reports show 30% declines since 2025 thanks to recovered production after avian flu outbreaks.
Dairy products are slightly down, with forecasts showing -0.9% overall.
Pain points:
Beef prices are soaring. U.S. cattle herds are at a 75-year low, feed costs are up, and weather impacts persist. Ground beef prices have already risen 15–19% in many regions, with more increases expected.
Coffee is spiking nearly 20%, driven by poor harvests in Brazil and trade tensions.
Fruits, vegetables, seafood, tropical produce, olive oil, and processed items continue to feel inflationary pressure.
Meanwhile, food-away-from-home (restaurants, takeout) is set to rise 4.6%, outpacing historic averages due to higher labor and operational costs passed to diners.
Tariffs and Policy: Driving Prices Up
A big contributor? Tariffs. Aggressive import duties on goods from China, the EU, Mexico, Canada, and other partners have added 0.5–0.7 percentage points to inflation, according to studies from the Tax Foundation and Yale Budget Lab.
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